Airprox Reality Check

The Airprox Reality Check System uses a sequence of filters to establish the likelihood of the reported sighting having involved a drone. Each filter has a range of possible scores. For instance, the first filter, ‘Eyewitness Report’, deals with who has made the reported sighting. Obviously if the drone pilot and the aircraft pilot have both made reports then there is no doubt a drone was involved. If only the aircraft pilot has made the report, then it is not as definite as the previous case (the pilot may have misidentified the object that flashed past). If only a cabin crew member has made the report, it is even less definite (this means the entire flight crew didn’t see the object, and the only object that could remain in view long enough to be identified from a cabin window would need to be either flying at a speed closely matching the reporting aircraft or flying a considerable distance away. No drone can fly at a speed closely matching an aircraft with cabin crew, and no drone can be seen from a considerable distance.)

All the other filters work in similar ways. The filters include Location, Weather, Photographic evidence, Altitude, ADS-B/ radar evidence. In total there are thirteen filters.

Each filter produces a score. Each filter also has a ‘weight’ in the overall score, as some filters are deemed more important than others – E.g. photographic evidence is weighted considerably higher than wind speed at ground level. A final score is then calculated. If a report scores less than -75 it is considered ‘Very Unlikely’. If it scores between -75 and 0 it is considered ‘Unlikely’. Reports which score between 0 and 75 are considered ‘Likely’ and above 75 reports are considered to be ‘Highly Likely’